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Simulation models are mathematical representations of the real world. Unlike analytic or point estimate models, a simulation model incorporates all relevant uncertainties and risks and represents them as probability distributions. In this fashion, all possible outcomes for each uncertain variable may be represented, and the correlations between variables adhered to. The output is also represented as a distribution of possibilities, with the probability of occurrence explicitly represented for each potential outcome. Using simulation modeling, you can discern both what is possible and what is probable. With the use of simulation models, we help our customers with:
- Strategic planning
- Portfolio management
- Production planning
- Inventory management
Each model is custom designed to help our customers answer specific business questions. Models are designed as persistent decision support tools. For this reason:
- Every model is assumption driven, with transparency of assumptions: The healthcare industry is dynamic, particularly the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device sectors. As new information becomes available, prior assumptions may be updated and the model rerun with a few mouse clicks. Data sources, assumption owners, and background information for assumptions are explicitly documented within the model. NO ASSUMPTIONS ARE HIDDEN IN MATHEMATICAL EQUATIONS.
- Models are modular in architecture: Updates to one portion of the model do not require reprogramming of the entire structure. This enhances the efficiency with which models are updated, and the value derived from the investment.
- A graphical user interface can be provided so that your users can access, update, and run the model without extensive programming or mathematical training. Secure Web access is also available so that your model is available to you any time, anywhere in the world.
- Model structures are complete, adaptive, and robust: As new variables are identified, they are efficiently incorporated into the model, ensuring that the outputs are representative of the most current market knowledge.
- In order to facilitate risk analysis, outputs are expressed as values with associated probability of occurrence. Reports are designed to help you rapidly incorporate a thorough, valid, and reliable risk assessment into your strategic decision process.
Convergence 360 has established rigorous guidelines to be followed in the development of every simulation model. These guidelines help ensure validity and reliability of model outputs, so that you may be confident in the guidance provided by them. All models are peer reviewed to ensure strict adherence to best-in-class process and methodology.
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